Analysis of Downstream Impacts of Air Traffic Delay

Reduction of air carrier flight delay in the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) has been a major objective of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for many years. Much of the current delay arises from weather-induced delays at airports. When a plane is delayed on one of the day’s flights, there can be a carryover delay that affects later flights by that aircraft. In this report, we develop statistical models to predict: 1. The “downstream” delays that occur when a flight experiences an initial delay, and 2. The likelihood of flight cancellation as a function of the initial delay. Using historical airline-reported delays for December 1993, we conclude that the mean “downstream” delay is approximately 80 percent of the initial delay, i.e., the net delay for an aircraft due to an initial flight delay is approximately 1.8 x the initial delay.